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Will the Coronavirus Pandemic Lead to Baby Boomers?

Professor of Financial Economics and Part-time Value Investor, Transfin.
Apr 7, 2020 1:03 PM 2 min read
Editorial

Like many world leaders, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked his citizens to stay at home to fight the coronavirus. But he has also advised Ukrainians to use this opportunity of extended interaction to...become baby boomers.

 

Children of Hope and Toil

Ukraine has a dwindling birth rate and faces a demographic crisis, so Zelensky’s appeal makes sense. But is it realistic? Studies point to the affirmative. Times of disaster and calamity tend to be followed by spikes in birth rates.

 

This was true in the US after the Great Depression and for most of the world after the Second World War. The same goes for various natural disasters, like hurricanes and tropical storms, and disease outbreaks like Ebola – and probably even COVID-19.

 

Why Does This Happen?

Prolonged periods of proximity between couples can encourage more intimacy. And once the disaster ends, hope for a brighter future motivates couples to start or expand families. But if an economic downturn follows the pandemic, couples could be discouraged from doing so.

 

Coming to India...

These predictions can hold true for Western nations. For example, post-WW2 US birth rates skyrocketed. The generation born during this baby boom was named, rather blandly, the Baby Boomer Generation.

 

However, such prediction models may not hold true for countries like India, which are different culturally. Despite seeing four major wars, the Emergency and tectonic socioeconomic changes since Indepedence, India’s birth rate has been steadily falling at more or less a natural pace. The COVID-19 pandemic and the nationwide lockdown might not prove to be a baby boom exception for India at least.

 

FIN.

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